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Poker Independent Chip Model

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Calculating ICM

This tournament equity calculator uses the 'Independent Chip Model' (ICM) to determine results. A discussion on how the results are obtained can be found at Two Plus Two forums here. Enter chip amounts and payouts between 0 and 1,000,000 using only numbers and decimal point. 155k members in the poker community. Shuffle up and deal! Official subreddit for all things poker. ELI5: Independent Chip Model (ICM) Close. Posted by 5 years ago. Tournament Strategy – the Independent Chip Model (part 1) This article was posted on March 11, 2014 The Independent Chip Model, abbreviated as ICM, is an integral part of tournament strategy for all those more or less knowledgeable in this respect.

Although it would be nice if there were a simple equation to determine the cash value of a player's stack on the fly, the reality of ICM is that it includes an immense amount of calculations. That being the case, it is highly recommended that players looking to find their prize pool equity use ICM calculators.

Still, let's look at ICM with simplified numbers:

Consider four players are left at a $10 Sit & Go table that started with ten players and each player started with 1000 chips. The payouts are the standard $50, $30 and $20 for first, second and third, respectively. If each of the four players has 2,500 chips, their chip value in regards to ICM would be $25 each. However, that congruency among players is rarely the case, so let's distribute the chips a little less evenly, as such:

  • Player 1 has 4,500
  • Player 2 has 2,500
  • Player 3 has 2,000
  • Player 4 has 1,000

Upon entering these figures into an ICM calculator, we can see each player's cash equity:

  • 4,500 chips are worth $35.44
  • 2,500 chips are worth $27.09
  • 2,000 chips are worth $23.85
  • 1,000 chips are worth $13.61

What this means is that on average and assuming equal skill level, each of these players will make the amount of money that the ICM calculator has determined their stacks to be worth.

Using ICM to Make Moves

The majority of ICM-based decisions end up happening on the bubble since, at that point in the competition, players simply want to reach a payout. ICM figures combined with equity value (EV) estimates can help make smarter moves to more often reach the money.

If you are player three from the previous example and have 2,000 chips, pushing all in with any two cards against player four with 1,000 chips will still leave you with a chip stack that's actually worth something.

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However, if you're against player one or two, risking your poker tournament ICM calculated value can be a bad decision, even in cases where you begin the hand as a 60 percent favorite with something like A♣T♣ or J♦J♠.

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When ICM Trumps Positive EV Moves

Though many players treat +EV plays as the ultimate deciding factor, situations arise where ICM figures are more important. As discussed before, these happen specifically around the bubble.

Consider you have the aforementioned hand A♣T♣ and are against player one who's a wild player. If he or she makes a bet that puts you all-in at the bubble with your current hand, ICM determines that you should still fold even though 60 percent win rate means you have positive EV for that hand.

Poker Independent Chip Model
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However, if you're against player one or two, risking your poker tournament ICM calculated value can be a bad decision, even in cases where you begin the hand as a 60 percent favorite with something like A♣T♣ or J♦J♠.

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When ICM Trumps Positive EV Moves

Though many players treat +EV plays as the ultimate deciding factor, situations arise where ICM figures are more important. As discussed before, these happen specifically around the bubble.

Consider you have the aforementioned hand A♣T♣ and are against player one who's a wild player. If he or she makes a bet that puts you all-in at the bubble with your current hand, ICM determines that you should still fold even though 60 percent win rate means you have positive EV for that hand.

If you win the hand

The table ICM will look like this:

Poker Independent Chip Model

  • 2,500 chips are worth $26.70
  • 2,500 chips are worth $26.70
  • You - 4,000 chips are worth $33.50
  • 1,000 chips are worth $13.09

Also take note that since this play made the top three players closer in chip stacks, the equity value of player four dropped slightly from $13.61 to $13.09.

If you lose the hand

The table ICM will look like:

  • 6,500 chips are worth $42.39
  • 2,500 chips are worth $32.42
  • 1,000 chips are worth $25.19
  • You - 0 chips are worth $0

Independent Chip Model Poker

So, with your 60 percent favored hand, there are two outcomes from an ICM simulator. In the winning situation, your value has raised $9.65 to $33.50. In the losing situation, your value has dropped from $23.85 to zero. This means that calling the all in from the big stack is, though a +EV move, bad ICM poker strategy since you are risking $23.85 to earn $9.65.

Full Tilt Poker gives MTT & SNG players the option to chop heads up according to ICM.

ICM Calculators

Chimp v1.0 (Desktop Program)

ICMIZER (Web-Based App)

Poker Independent Chip Model Anchor Chart

Jumpin jalapenos slot machine bonus win. ICM Nash Calculator (Web-Based App, Detailed Explanations on Push/Fold Scenarios)





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